The Fleming System (TFS)

Results are reported here for three different gom definitions.

• 2.0
  gom 2.0 was invented to quit rewarding teams for running up the score in games. The gom is calculated as follows:
  • base rating for winning = 14 points
  • margin of victory bonus = .5(margin of victory)
    (maximum bonus = 7 points)
  • defensive bonus = 14 - losing score
    (minimum bonus = 0 points)
  • for overtime win, gom = 3.5 points
    (no margin of victory or defensive bonus)
  • for a tie, gom = 0
• 1.0
  This gom definition uses a diminishing returns principle to reduce the effect of a team running up the score. There is also a small defensive bonus for holding the oposing team to a fraction of the winning score. Source code (written originally in MS QuickBASIC 4.5, which can now be compiled using FreeBASIC is available. The gom is calculated as follows:
  • base rating = 3
  • first margin of victory bonus = (winning score - losing score)
    (maximum = 14)
  • second margin of victory bonus = .5((winning score - 14) - losing score)
    (maximum = 14, minimum = 0)
  • third margin of victory bonus = .25((winning score - 42) - losing score)
    (maximum = 7, minimum = 0)
  • first defensive bonus = 1
    (if the losing score is half or less than the winning score)
  • second defensive bonus = 1
    (if the losing score is a quarter or less than the winning score)
  • third defensive bonus = 2
    (if the losing score is 10% or less than the winning score)
  • fourth defensive bonus = 1
    (if the losing score is 0)
  • for an overtime win, gom = 2
  • for a tie, gom = 0
• Flat
  A very simple gom is the Flat definition. It is calculated as follows:
  • base rating = 10
  • for ties, gom = 0
• Straight
  Another simple gom is the Straight definition. It is calculated as follows:
  • gom = Margin of Victory (mov)

Betting

If TFS worked flawlessly as a predictive system, I would be a wealthy man. It should be noted that I still have to work for a living, so be sure to read my disclaimer.

There is a very good compendium of ranking and rating systems available on the Web as part of the rec.sport.football.college newsgroup page which is maintained by David Wilson. Also be sure to check out the College Football Ranking Comparasion page maintained by Kenneth Massey as part of Massey's Ratings and Rankings page.

Some College Football Links

• The College Football Hall of Fame - in South Bend, IN.
• College Sports Online (formerly Fans Only) - covers all college sports and houses many sites for individual schools
• USA Today College Football news
• NCAA Football Statistics - at USAToday
• ESPN College Football news
• The Sporting News College Football news
• Yahoo! College Football Coverage
• I-AA College Football Weekly Preview by Eric Gemunder
• rec.sport.football.college Web Site maintained by David Wilson